TRANSFER ANALYSIS # 5: Trek-Segafredo & Bahrain-Victorious An Exodus of Expertise?



Switch Evaluation: On this week’s installment of the Weekly Switch Evaluation, we’re breaking down the low season switch exercise of Trek-Segafredo, who continues to construct a promising younger roster regardless of failing to fill their huge grand tour GC contender deficit, and Bahrain-Victorious, who has struggled to interchange a big exodus of expertise and is now doubtlessly nearer to worrying about staying out of the dreaded ‘relegation zone’ than touchdown again within the high half of the end-of-season group factors rankings.


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  • Notable new signings: Natnael Tesfatsion (Dronehopper), Mathias Vacek (Gazprom), Thibau Nys (Baloise-Trek)
  • Notable departing riders: Gianluca Brambilla (Q36.5)
  • Notable unsigned riders: Simon Pellaud
  • Roster spots remaining: 1 (rookie/neo-pro solely)
  • Common age: 27.7
  • Professional Biking Stats Factors In/Out: +502

Pedersen has been constant

The group with a surprisingly modest price range has racked up shockingly persistently mid-table PCS finishes over the past 5 seasons (eleventh, twelfth, eighth, tenth, thirteenth), however has struggled to seek out viable grand tour GC choices, with Richie Porte’s shock third place on the 2020 Tour de France as their solely grand tour podium end since 2013. Nevertheless, after trying to rebuild this system with an ill-fated 2020/2021 run with the getting old Vincenzo Nibali, the group has been quietly constructing a powerful core of promising younger expertise, with Jasper Stuyven and Mads Pedersen rising as a number of the most constant stage win/one-day threats. The group has stored this expertise ID and growth theme going over this low season and seen the group deliver on three promising younger riders in Natnael Tesfatsion (23), Mathias Vacek (20) and Thibau Nys (20). None of those riders are more likely to deliver main victories in 2023, however they sign the group is heading in the right direction and constructing towards the longer term.

  • Tesfatsion, a particularly versatile and promising younger Eritrean, might need been overshadowed by the exploits of his countryman Biniam Girmay throughout the 2022 Giro, however he quietly picked up two high ten stage finishes on two broadly completely different levels (bunch dash & summit end).
  • The younger Nys (son of Cyclocross legend Sven Nys) is an intriguing future prospect, however his modern Vacek is already a one-day star within the making. His 2nd place within the U23 2022 World Championships is spectacular, however his sixth place on the Veneto portends a giant 2023 might await.
  • By way of outgoing riders, the group’s solely main loss is Gianluca Brambilla. Whereas it is a main blow on paper, in actuality, the 35-year-old Italian isn’t significantly irreplaceable. He’s an extremely proficient rider with star energy in his house nation (which is a crucial marketplace for co-sponsor Segafredo), however, over the past 4 seasons, his main contributions have been a pair of stage wins on the Giro d’Italia. This degree of manufacturing could be changed by far cheaper and fewer demanding riders, and, most significantly, means the group gained’t have to speculate so many assets in his ill-fated GC campaigns.
  • The one critique that might be leveled on the group’s low season is that they nonetheless lack a viable GC contender and with solely a single neo-pro roster slot remaining, seem to have made the choice to proceed to eschew a pretty big a part of the game. That is unideal for a group owned/sponsored by one of many world’s largest bike manufacturers and sponsored by a significant Italian firm, which might love a viable GC risk for his or her house grand tour. Contemplating this, I’m mildly shocked they haven’t made a proposal to a rider like Domenico Pozzovivo, who can land himself in a grand tour GC top-ten place with none vital group assist.

Stuyven: Classics man

Bahrain – Victorious

  • Notable new signings: Andrea Pasqualon (Intermarché), Nikias Arndt (DSM), Fran Miholjević (Friuli ASD), Rainer Kepplinger (Hrinkow Advarics)
  • Notable departing riders: Luis León Sánchez (Astana), Sonny Colbrelli (retired), Dylan Teuns (IPT), Jan Tratnik (Jumbo), Domen Novak (UAE)
  • Notable unsigned riders: Stephen Williams
  • Roster spots remaining: 3
  • Common age: 29
  • Professional Biking Stats Factors In/Out: -1106

Classics and stage wins for Mohorič

The possibly overly ambitiously named group pulled itself out of a tailspin by way of a number of spectacular performances at main races from key riders like Sonny Colbrelli and Matej Mohorič over the past two seasons, however to this point, their low season, which has seen a number of key riders depart with out apparent replacements, has left one thing to be desired and saddled the group with the 4th worst Professional Biking Stats factors influx/outflow ratio.

  • Even setting apart the devastating health-related retirement of 2021 Paris-Roubaix champion Sonny Colbrelli, the group has skilled an outflow of expertise over the previous few months. The 39-year-old Luis León Sánchez is an icon, however he hasn’t gained a WorldTour race since 2019 and, at his present age, the group is healthier off parting methods (and admittedly I’m shocked that the stagnant Astana group signed him away). The most important losses are riders like Dylan Tuens (the group’s second-highest factors scorer in 2022), Jan Tratnik, and Domen Novak. A majority of these low-key, and reasonably priced, riders who’ve the expertise to compete for giant wins frequently are a key a part of a WorldTour group’s center class, and seeing them head out en masse ought to be troubling for administration. One thing else to look at is that the choice to depart was rumored to be because of a poor relationship between these riders and group administration.
  • In the meantime, outdoors of the 31-year-old Nikias Arndt, not one of the incoming riders have a single WorldTour win to their names. Evaluate this to a complete of 24 WorldTour wins between the departing riders. If Bahrain isn’t cautious, this imbalance in influx/outflow might trigger them to overlook out on sufficient outcomes to see them combating to keep away from relegation when their WT license expires in 2025.
  • Nevertheless, one vibrant spot is the arrival of 20-year-old Fran Miholjević, the reigning Croatian time trial champion, who’s a high-upside teen who might be developed right into a aggressive grand tour GC contender down the road. On the draw back, this kind of rider doesn’t often web fast success and will take a number of years to bear fruit.
    Contemplating their present rider pinch, the truth that the extraordinarily promising 26-year-old Stephen Williams continues to be unsigned is price noting and one thing the group ought to wish to treatment within the coming days.
  • Buried on this disappointing switch efficiency is the truth that the group has three worthwhile roster spots remaining and with riders like Nairo Quintana and Mark Cavendish nonetheless accessible, there may be nonetheless time for a number of blockbuster signings to show round their present factors deficit.

Fred Wright has been near a win

Free Agent Replace: Mark Cavendish & Nairo Quintana Are Someway Nonetheless Obtainable
Similar to weeks previous, Nairo Quintana and Mark Cavendish are unusually nonetheless accessible with time rapidly operating out to discover a new group. However, in contrast to weeks previous, with Nairo’s brother, Dayer, who has ridden with Nairo all through the vast majority of his profession, signing a contract this previous week with an area Colombian group, we now have the primary actual indicators that Nairo’s alternatives to trip within the top-level in 2023 have narrowed significantly.

quintana chaves
Does Quintana have a group for 2023?

One other factor to notice is simply how a lot the lower in group dimension guidelines (right down to 30 riders from 31 in 2022 and 32 in 2021), has left so many notable riders with out contracts heading into the brand new season. This has significantly squeezed riders like Enrico Battaglin, Ryan Gibbons and Cees Bol, who is likely to be extraordinarily stable riders able to performing all kinds of group duties, however don’t win or rack up UCI factors persistently.

san sebastian 22
Gibbons struggling to discover a new group

However, even with this roster dimension squeeze, I’ve been shocked to see groups who simply wrapped up a brutal promotion/relegation battle leaving riders able to racking up a big quantity of UCI factors however don’t break the bank, like Domenico Pozzovivo, Sébastien Reichenbach, and Juan Sebastián Molano, in the marketplace. This maybe speaks to the truth that even after the inaugural factors battle, many groups nonetheless haven’t internalized that with the slates being cleaned at midnight on December thirty first, the battle for UCI factors will start in earnest once more on January 1.

Nonetheless no house for Domenico Pozzovivo

# Spencer Martin is the creator of the cycling-analysis publication Past the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of every race and solutions massive image questions surrounding group and rider efficiency. Join now to get full entry to all of the accessible content material and race breakdowns. #

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